"The Sunday Political Brunch " -- January 15, 2012

Mitt and Ann Romney.jpg

(Interstate 90, New York) -- Greetings from the road! January is only 15 days old, and I literally don’t know what day it is, or where I am. I’ve been to Iowa, New Hampshire, New York and all kinds of places in between, so it’s hard to keep track. Anyway, I’ve seen a lot of politics the last few weeks, so here are some thoughts:

“A Winning Strategy?” – To the surprise of many, Mitt Romney continues to lead the polls in South Carolina. This is puzzling because he is a moderate running in a very conservative state, not to mention the fact that there are three true conservatives on the ballot. Why is Romney leading? A poll in South Carolina showed that of those backing Romney, 59 percent felt he was the only Republican who could beat President Obama, even though there were other GOP candidates more aligned with their views.

“A Conservative Strategy” – The question must be asked: Can a conservative still win the nomination after Romney’s wins in Iowa and New Hampshire? The answer is "Yes." Here’s the latest CNN national poll: Romney, 34 percent; Newt Gingrich, 18 percent; Ron Paul and Rick Santorum at 15 percent each; and Rick Perry at 9 percent. If, in theory, the conservatives Gingrich, Perry and Santorum pooled their votes and backed one candidate, they’d have 42 percent of the vote. So, if Perry and Santorum got out of the race and endorsed Gingrich, for example, the conservative wing might have a chance.

“A Conservative Strategy, Part 2” – Assuming the above strategy occurred, could Republicans still win in November? It’s dicey! Fist of all, Romney is the only GOP candidate polling ahead of Obama right now. Second, a lot of independent voters - who make up 38 percent of the national electorate, according to Gallup - are inclined to vote for Romney, but not so predisposed to cast votes for a more conservative Republican. So, yes, a conservative could still win the nomination; but the general election is not so certain.

“Romney Looks the Part” – In all the years I have been covering politics, there have been these nebulous phrases, “He looks Presidential” or “That doesn’t sound very Presidential.” The concept of “Presidential” has no real definition; you just know it when you see it. It’s a kind of vibe you get from the candidate or office holder. I watched Mitt and Ann Romney with their children and grandchildren at the victory rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, Tuesday night (see photo above). All I can say is that he looked and sounded “Presidential” - again, whatever that means. He has a real shot, and you can picture him in the White House. There have been eleven presidents in my lifetime, and the only two that never really gave me the "Presidential vibe" were Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush.

“The Venture Vulture” – They must be singing Newt Gingrich’s and Rick Perry’s praises at the White House. The more those two attack Romney for his years running Bain Capital, the more likely you are to see those same sound bites in Obama reelection ads this fall should Romney be the Republican nominee. The Democrats have been hoping all along that Republicans would form the “circular firing squad” and shoot each other down. The White House may be getting its wish.

“Breaking News?” – The weirdest moment of the New Hampshire campaign was at the Nashua Rotary Club on Monday, when Newt Gingrich announced that he had a major news flash. Gingrich told the crowd that he had just received a phone call from Todd Palin and that he, Palin, had endorsed Newt for President. Now, it would have been generally newsworthy if the endorsement had come from former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, but from her spouse? Anyway, when Newt made this breathtaking announcement, there was not a peep from the Rotarians nor from the press pool. It was surreal.

“New Hampshire State of Mind!” – I’m just curious. What do you think is the prettiest, most charming state in the nation? At the risk of offending many friends and family members around the nation, my vote goes to New Hampshire. Every time I am there, I feel as if I’m driving through a picture postcard. I just love the place! By the way, I always give dining tips from my campaign travels, so here are two: Sammy J’s for breakfast in Salem, New Hampshire, and The Common Man, in Concord, for lunch or dinner. Actually, The Common Man has several outlets in the Granite State, but the one in Concord is king!

As always, your questions, comments and disagreements are welcome. Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

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